The Future of MMOs: Will They Ever Return to Trend?

MMORPGs: Not Exactly Declining

Despite some occasional flops, particularly when publishers rush to exploit perceived 'cash cows' without proper understanding, the MMORPG (Massively Multiplayer Online Role-Playing Game) market is far from declining. Titles like Destiny and its sequel, as well as Anthem, have performed admirably. These successes indicate that the MMORPG field is still healthy and quite robust.

Many predict that we might not see another massively popular MMORPG like World of Warcraft, but the market's health speaks volumes about its potential for growth and sustained interest. The beauty of the MMO genre lies in its community-driven nature, which can span decades if managed wisely.

A Zero-Sum Game in MMOs

Unlike the general gaming market, the MMO field operates in a zero-sum game. People have only so many hours in a day, and their attention can be scattered among various games. However, this doesn't mean the MMO market is inherently limited. I, for one, have more games in my Steam library than I can realistically play through, yet I continue to buy more to support developers. This saturation works in favor of the MMO market, making it positive-sum and nonsaturated.

Challenges in the MMO Market

The MMO market, on the other hand, is nearly saturated. Each MMO game competes directly with others for players' attention. Few are willing to commit to a game they haven’t even tried, or for which they need no subscription and they can just let sit on their Steam shelves. This zero-sum nature means that once players have exhausted the single-player content of one MMO, they often move on to another for new content. Over time, guilds and clans within MMOs atrophy and eventually lose members, leading to a decline in the overall player base.

This has been a significant issue in popular MMOs like Furcadia. Attempting to revamp core content can disrupt the social environment, causing some members to become disinterested. Efforts to grow and innovate often backfire, leading to a hollowing out of the community. This phenomenon underscores the challenges MMOs face in maintaining long-term engagement and loyalty.

Building Sustainable MMOs

For MMOs to thrive, they need a balanced approach. AAA teams with substantial budgets are necessary for development and maintenance. At the same time, indie teams are crucial for long-term, community-oriented support. Sustaining a healthy MMO community requires flexibility and investment in various areas, including:

Development of new content to keep players engaged Mainstream marketing to attract new players Community management to maintain social cohesion Technical support to ensure the game remains stable and enjoyable Community events and features to foster engagement

However, managing the delicate balance between these needs is challenging. Many companies struggle to navigate these transitions without risking a decline in player base and game health, potentially leading to the game's eventual demise.

In conclusion, while the market for MMOs is stable and shows no signs of declining, sustaining a massively popular MMO over decades requires careful planning, diverse skill sets, and a deep understanding of the community's needs. Few companies can successfully manage this complex ecosystem for an extended period.