The Possibility and Prospects of the EU Becoming a Full-Blood Federation

Introduction to European Union Governance

Whether one views the possibility of full federalism in the EU as a risk or an opportunity depends largely on one's political stance. However, it is an inevitability that several prominent parties within the EU advocate for such a transformation. The term EU itself is a blend of acronyms with the aim of unifying several nations, rather than representing individual proud nation-states. This structure fundamentally shifts the focus from individual sovereignty to collective governance, as seen in the use of the single currency, the Euro, among 20 EU countries.

Political Debates and Current Consensus

The push towards federalism in the EU is not a mere risk, but a clearly stated goal by some political parties. These parties propose that full federalization should occur within a timeframe of 5 to 10 years, aiming for a unified government with significant powers. Other factions in the EU debate argue that such a transformation has already proceeded too quickly, necessitating a reevaluation and potential rollback of some steps. The democratic process further complicates this debate, as there will always be voices opposing any form of centralization.

Despite the differing opinions, the current consensus suggests that full federalization is unlikely to happen within the next 50 years, but will certainly become a reality within the next 100 years. Personally, while I believe full federalization to be a positive development, I argue that it should be approached with caution to avoid overly rapid changes. As someone nearing 60, I don't expect to witness the transformation in my lifetime.

Historical Context and Obstacles

The success of federalism in the U.S. came from the realization that individual state autonomy was incompatible with the efficient functioning of the union. In contrast, the EU is already composed of 27 independent countries that currently operate smoothly. The idea of them voluntarily ceding power to an EU government faces significant political and cultural barriers. The citizens of the EU are not uniformly as nationalistic as those in the UK, implying that the shift towards federalism might face strong opposition.

Future Directions for the EU

Despite the potential for federalization, it is not a certainty. The UK, which voted to remain in the EU, tends to support a return to the original concept of the EU as a free association of independent nations. This view is held by many who believe that the aspirations of the EU to become a superstate are unrealistic and that a federalized EU is unlikely to achieve its goals. The hope for the future of the EU lies in its ability to revert to its founding principles of independence and sovereignty, thereby ensuring a more stable and favorable outcome for its member states.