UK's Trade Deal with the US: What Trump’s Future Might Bring
Introduction
The possibility of a UK-US trade deal has been a topic of speculation since the UK's departure from the European Union (EU). Under the previous administrations, this negotiation has proven challenging. Both Donald Trump and Joe Biden's teams have yet to make significant progress. With the 2024 election looming, suggesting a change in policy could be on the horizon.
Previous Negotiation Failures
Breaking down the previous attempts, the UK-US trade deal negotiations under both administrations have faced numerous setbacks. The first round of talks were initiated in January 2020, but were quickly deemed insufficient. The timing of these talks was criticized as being unfortunate, and since then, no significant progress has been made. Given this track record, it is unlikely that a deal will be reached anytime soon.
The nature of these negotiations often depends on political power dynamics. With the Republican Party in charge, a trade deal is more likely, whereas under the Democratic Party, such an agreement is less probable. Unfortunately, under Biden, the negotiation process was hindered by his political views and reluctance to validate certain agreements, such as the Irish Protocol, which complicates the entire process.
No New Deal on the Horizon
Despite initial hopes, the reality is that no new deal has emerged. Historical context suggests that President Obama had already predicted a delay for such a deal. The lack of a deal was not due to a better one but simply because no deal had been secured. This prediction has been backed by the fact that prior to Brexit, EU countries were given priority in trade negotiations.
The quality of American food products often falls short of UK standards. The UK imports food from various countries but rarely from the US due to its poor quality and the presence of chemicals banned in the UK. Electrical and mechanical devices are also incompatible with American products, making a trade deal difficult to achieve.
Future Plans and Political Influences
Given the current political landscape, it is unlikely that Donald Trump's candidacy in 2024 will significantly impact the UK-US trade deal. Trump has historically prioritized American interests, which may result in a deal that is unfavorable to the UK. Moreover, given the urgent domestic issues he is likely to face, any trade deal is unlikely to be his top priority.
In contrast, Boris Johnson, with his strong ties to Trump, believes he can secure a deal. As he states, Boris will ensure that Remoaner (term used to describe those who benefit from Brexit) Liz Truss gets the deal done. Boris claims he will have a word with his friend Donald to ensure the deal is favorable. However, recognizing Biden's stance against the Irish Protocol, any US agreement would face significant obstacles.
Conclusion
In summary, the UK-US trade deal negotiations have not been successful under either Trump or Biden's administrations. Given the political influences and historical context, it is highly improbable that a new deal will be achieved anytime soon. The future of such a deal depends heavily on future political dynamics and the priorities of the respective leaders.